De huizenmarkt in Nederland wordt getypeerd door structurele woningleegstand enerzijds, en een tekort aan sociale huurwoningen anderzijds. Hoe kunnen woningcorporaties de data uit alle relevante informatiesystemen gebruiken om woningleegstand tegen te gaan? Met minder woningleegstand wordt de beschikbaarheid van sociale huurwoningen vergroot, het rendement op vastgoed verhoogd en er kan beter aansluitend worden verhuurd.
“Het juist managen van je data is essentieel voor het inzetten van
Predictive Analytics voor het voorspellen van woningleegstand.”
Aanleiding: een waardevol inzicht
Hoe langer de tijd om een nieuwe huurder te vinden, des te korter de leegstandsperiode van een woning. Dit is één van de waardevolle inzichten die is opgedaan tijdens het succesvolle project ‘Aansluitend Verhuren als succesfactor voor minder woningleegstand’. Door processen te optimaliseren met behulp van Lean methodieken en Process Mining is de gemiddelde leegstand teruggebracht van 70 naar 28 dagen. Process Mining is een techniek die het daadwerkelijke verloop van bedrijfsprocessen analyseert op basis van log-data uit informatiesystemen. Het kan trends, patronen en afwijkingen detecteren in het proces. Middels deze techniek is op basis van loggegevens uit de informatiesystemen de daadwerkelijke uitvoering van het verhuurproces inzichtelijk gemaakt.
Leegstand voorspellen
Het procesmodel laat zien dat een advertentie pas wordt geplaatst nadat de eerste opname is geweest. Tijdens deze eerste opname komt een inspecteur de betreffende woning bezoeken en maakt deze een inschatting van de mutatiewerkzaamheden. Afhankelijk van hoeveel nog aan de woning moet gebeuren na het vertrek van de huurder, kan exacter worden vastgesteld per wanneer de woning weer verhuurbaar is. Deze informatie van de inspecteur is essentieel voor het plaatsen van de advertentie. Maar wat als de duur van de mutatieperiode kan worden voorspeld?
Dat zou betekenen dat het kunnen plaatsen van de advertentie onafhankelijk wordt van de inspecteur die een eerste opname komt doen omdat je exacter kunt inschatten wanneer mutatiewerkzaamheden klaar zullen zijn en wat het precieze moment is om weer te verhuren. Omdat de advertentie eerder online kan staan, vergroot je de mogelijkheid om snel opnieuw te kunnen verhuren. Meer sociale huurwoningen zouden hierdoor beschikbaar kunnen worden gesteld en onnodige leegstand blijft beperkt.
Data-gedreven werken
Data kan helpen in het vinden van mogelijke oorzaken en factoren die bijdragen aan de benodigde mutatieperiode, met als doel om deze periode zo nauwkeurig mogelijk te kunnen voorspellen. Denk hierbij aan vastgoeddata (objecttype, WOZ-waarde, huurprijs, wws-punten, woonoppervlak, etc.), geanonimiseerde bewonersdata (huishoudinkomen, betalingsgedrag, huishoudgrootte, etc.) en onderhoudsdata (renovatie van badkamer, keuken en toilet). Daarnaast wordt ook gekeken naar de woonduur en de aanwezigheid van asbest. Maar ook locatie gerelateerde gegevens, zoals het sterftecijfer in een bepaald postcodegebied, worden getoetst op mogelijk voorspellende waarde.
Datamanagement is essentieel
Om dit te verwezenlijken, is het juist managen van je data van essentieel belang. Veel woningcorporaties beschikken over alle bovengenoemde data, maar er is nog onvoldoende bewustzijn van de potentie van het juist documenteren hiervan. Data met veel voorspellende waarde kunnen, door het niet of niet juist vastleggen in de systemen, verloren gaan omdat de data niet meer beschikbaar is of niet van voldoende kwaliteit is. Dit is jammer, omdat het de voorspellingen minder betrouwbaar maakt of zelfs niet betrouwbaar genoeg om de besluitvorming op te baseren.
Van datamanagement naar data-gedreven besluitvorming
Door de juiste gegevens op de juiste manier te documenteren, wordt de stap naar een model dat de mutatieperiode accuraat voorspelt steeds kleiner. Algoritmes kunnen dan patronen gaan herkennen uit de historische data en gebruiken dit om de mutatieperiode accuraat te voorspellen.
Deze data-gedreven aanpak brengt verdere financiële voordelen met zich mee. Zo is er minder kans op een onjuiste inschatting tijdens de eerste opname en kunnen er dus scherpere afspraken worden gemaakt met bedrijven en aannemers.
Benieuwd naar wat dit voor jouw organisatie kan betekenen? Neem vrijblijvend contact met ons op.
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Neem contact op
- Femke van der Leij
- Senior Consultant
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